April 2009 - Posts
Is Tampa Bay's 8-14 April a slow start or a portend of a tough summer?
Because the Rays play in the AL East, the question, although premature by most baseball standards, feels legitimate. Entering May, the Rays will have to pass not just the heavyweights (Red Sox/Yankees), but improved Toronto and Baltimore. So, this weekend the Rays hosting a four-gamer with Boston has more of a midseason import.
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Spending 22 years traveling while covering Major League Baseball took me away from the NFL Draft. As the event grew into a spectacle, and now a year-round business, there was bemusement by me from afar at the obsession over an exercise with a 50 percent fail rate.
Last Saturday, I was reintroduced first-hand to what some wise men call the fourth biggest sport in America. Over 5,000 jammed into a convention center a half-mile from the 49ers’ headquarters for a draft party. I assume most, if not all, other NFL cities had similar gatherings.
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They were still attaching the padding to the outfield wall at RFK Stadium while the Mets took batting practice on a cold early April afternoon in 2005. It was just a few years ago that the nation’s capital was giddy for baseball. Now, the sport was back. A neglected team, just a few years earlier ticketed for extinction, had arrived from Montreal, but in DC it didn’t matter what shape the club was in for things were going to get better.
By season’s end, over 2.7 million fans watched their new team in an aging stadium that offered few comforts. No doubt existed in the mind of anyone attending a game in DC that this incarnation of baseball in Washington would be a rousing success.
Flash ahead to this week: Twice I have watched highlight packages of games from Nationals Park and was stunned by reams of empty seats. Announced attendance is barely 20,000 per game in the second year of a brand new ballpark.
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Florida’s fast start really shouldn’t be a surprise. The Marlins played nine of their first 12 games against Atlanta and Washington, the weak underside of the NL East, and they won all nine. BTW: Did anyone ever imagine the Braves being referred to as weak again?
The Fish have the vast majority of their lineup back, and a rotation filled with upside. This blog was shocked at the lack of respect afforded the Fish by noted prognosticators. (Shameless plug: Check the archives for on Feb. 18, I blogged that the Marlins were one of the NL’s top four teams).
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Looking into my crystal ball, there could be a cloudy 2009 forecast for the list below.
RED SOX: They were so close to another World Series even after Manny Ramirez’s departure. Did that create a false sense of belief? Did they suffer a huge blow by not landing Mark Teixeira?
Look at the first week of the season for the biggest bat on the Red Sox, that of David Ortiz: one double in 34 at-bats. Wrist injuries are always dicey for sluggers. Watch how teams approach Ortiz in crucial situations: so far he has one walk and zero extra base hits in at-bats with runners on base.
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There is slight concern in San Francisco over Tim Lincecum, who has lasted only 8.2 innings in his first two starts.
The first question is physical, one respected blog referenced Lincecum's drop in velocity. I was in Pac Bell Park on opening day when the radar gun registered 95-97 mph on his fastballs to right-handed hitters. This is not a Cole Hamels’ situation in which there is a 5-7mph drop.
What is clear is the loss of command by Lincecum. The pitcher referenced as much after his last start and the numbers confirm it.
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Reflections from the first week of the season:
THE BEST PITCHING COACH IN THE GAME…continues to be Dave Duncan of the Cardinals. Kyle Lohse has started 2-0, Todd Wellemeyer was morphed from a journeyman middle reliever to an effective back-end starter, Braden Looper was transformed into a $5 million starter (though he’s playing in Milwaukee this season), all under the quiet tutelage of Tony La Russa's longtime aide. Notice that Duncan will never beat the publicity drum, but why doesn't someone else sing Duncan's praises?
COULDN'T MILWAUKEE USE DUNCAN? Watching the Brewers in San Francisco made what their team is all about very clear: They will hit, and struggle to pitch. At some point this year, does Milwaukee consider moving Prince Fielder for some arm(s)?
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My look at 10 players whose production is essential for their respective teams to thrive this season:
MILTON BRADLEY: Exposed by the Dodgers last season in the playoffs for their right-handed hitting imbalance, the Cubs believe they have addressed that issue by signing Milton Bradley for three years and $30 million.
Can Bradley stay healthy and produce offensively without the DH position as a crutch? The Cubs don’t need Bradley to win the NL Central again, but they will lean on him in October.
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In this blog, surprise in terms of teams does not mean making the playoffs, but rather exceeding expectations and recent performances, and entering September in contention for the postseason.
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No question that Rafael Nadal is the king of men’s tennis. He’s the holder of three of the four Grand Slam titles, and his Australian Open win reinforced that Roger Federer no longer resides in the top spot.
Now the surprise: Who's No. 2?
The fashionable answer has become Andy Murray. And there's merit in that argument although clay is a surface that still must be mastered by the Scotsman.
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Another rite of late spring is to project which players will come into their own, and burst forth with huge years. Here’s my top 10 for 2009:
MATT CAIN, SAN FRANCISCO: This will be a pivotal year in Cain’s development. Everything is in place for him to come up big. He has the stuff, the health, and the pitcher-friendly ballpark -- and now with a proven Tim Lincecum and the addition of Randy Johnson providing rotation cover, there is limited pressure on Cain. He must prove this year that he can win the 2-1 and 3-2 games that he has previously lost.
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With a few exceptions (the major one being Pedro Martinez), the winter shakeout is finished, and many of those who hit the open market have landed with new teams.
But baseball’s free agents felt the economic hit. A few players made out quite well, but most had to settle for less than they expected. For the teams, the elite shopped Park Avenue, while the rest went to Sam’s Club.
So who were the best buys the offseason?
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